The value of payments made via mobile phones worldwide will reach US$670bn by 2015, up from $240bn this year, according to a new forecast by Juniper Research.
The ‘Mobile Payment Strategies: Opportunities & Markets 2011-2015’ report’s forecast includes purchases of digital and physical goods, money transfers and NFC and is based on the gross merchandise value of all purchases or the value of money being transferred. Key findings include:
- Some 20 countries are expected to launch NFC services in the next 18 months, resulting in transactions approaching $50 billion worldwide by 2014.
- All segments of the mobile payments market will exhibit two to three times growth over the next five years. “This growth will be driven by the rapid adoption of mobile ticketing, NFC contactless payments, physical goods purchases and money transfers as people in both developed and developing countries use their devices for everyday transactions,” say the researchers.
- The need for financial access in developing countries is such that active mobile money users will double by 2013 and drive transaction values accordingly.
- The top three regions for mobile payments — the Far east & China, Western Europe and North America) will represent 75% of the global mobile payment gross transaction value by 2015.
- Digital goods payments will account for nearly 40% of the market in 2015.
“Our analysis shows that emerging segments such as physical goods payments, NFC and money transfers will fuel market growth by a factor of 2.7 times by 2015,” says Juniper senior analyst David Snow.