Forecast: One in two payment cards shipped in 2018 will be contactless

Contactless payment cards forecast to account for over 50% of all cards delivered globally in 2018 — ABI Research — “Contactless payment card issuance is set to hit 1.5bn units in 2018, accounting for over 50% of all payment card shipments delivered globally… Breaking the 50% barrier marks a significant milestone in contactless card migration, where market momentum is expected to continue due to next-generation migration opportunities, most notably in the US, India, South East Asia, and Latin America. These opportunities are helping to push contactless card issuance volumes toward 2.3bn annually by 2022.”



Shoppers forecast to spend $45bn a year using self-checkout in stores

‘Just Walk Out’ shopping and other smart checkout tech to reach over $45bn transactions by 2023, as retailers strive to eliminate lines — Juniper Research — “Retail spend at frictionless payment stores like Amazon Go will grow from an estimated US$253m in 2018 to over US$45bn by 2023. Juniper expects most of these transactions to be in convenience and general stores, with an average transaction value around US$30 per visit… Self-scanning apps, an alternative to ‘Just Walk Out’ technologies, will be used by over 32 million shoppers by 2023.”


Mobile contactless payment volumes to rise by 30% a year to 2022

451 Research’s Global Unified Commerce Forecast uncovers dramatic shifts in consumer spending patterns — 451 Research — “Mobile contactless payments will surpass $1 trillion globally in 2022. Sales executed via mobile contactless payment methods such as Apple Pay and Google Pay are growing at an impressive 30.7% CAGR through 2022. However, they will account for just 1.4% of global brick and mortar retail sales this year and reach only 3.8% by 2022.”


Survey: Merchants are winning the US mobile wallet adoption battle

Merchants winning the battle for mobile wallet supremacy — Javelin Strategy & Research — “In the rush to market, the main wallet value proposition, paying at the POS, wasn’t particularly compelling. In reality, loyalty and rewards will drive adoption, something merchants are doing particularly well,” said Krista Tedder, director of payments at Javelin Strategy & Research.”


OEM Pays forecast to dominate mobile contactless payments market for next five years

Contactless payments to represent 1 in 3 in-store transactions globally by 2020 — Juniper Research — “Juniper forecasts that OEM Pay wallets will enable over $300 billion in transactions by 2020, representing 15% of the total contactless in-store transactions… OEM Pay wallet users will reach 450 million by 2020, with Apple accounting for one in two OEM Pay users globally… ‘We believe that growth over the next five years will continue to be dominated by offerings from the major OEM players.'”


Eight in ten POS terminals to support NFC payments by 2022

Shipments of NFC-ready POS terminals reached 24.7m in 2017 — Berg Insight — “The attach rate for NFC was highest in EU28+2 and North America, where 90% and 88% respectively of the POS terminals shipped [in 2017] featured NFC. NFC was also a very popular feature in many other major markets worldwide, including Brazil, Turkey and China… More than 78% of the world’s POS terminals will be NFC-ready in 2022, up from 50% in 2017.”


Juniper predicts gains in market share for OEM Pays

Apple Pay accounts for 1 in 2 OEM Pay users globally, reaching 200 million by 2020 — Juniper Research — “The global number of mobile contactless users will exceed 760 million by 2020, up from an estimated 440 million in 2018… The combined market share of Apple, Samsung and Google will reach 60% of global mobile contactless users by 2023, up from an estimated 50% in 2018. Other OEM Pay users, including the likes of Huawei Pay, Xiaomi Pay, Fitbit Pay and Garmin Pay, will exceed 20 million by 2020.”


mPOS terminals to account for one in four POS transactions

Mobile point-of-sale devices to account for almost 1 in 4 POS transactions by 2023 — Juniper Research — “The adoption of mPos (mobile point-of-sale) devices connecting wirelessly or via mobile devices, such as those from iZettle and Square, will drive annual mPos transactions to over 87bn by 2023. This will represent a threefold increase over an estimated 28bn transactions in 2018.”


Four in five Americans want to use one platform to manage all their finances

Digital is the new language of money: Americans predict payment apps will move to the top spot in their wallet and would like to manage their financial lives in one place — Koski Research — “Americans predict that apps will be the most common in-person payment type in five years… More than four in five Americans (84%) say they are interested in managing their money from one online central platform for deposits, spending, and saving.”


Juniper predicts 2.1bn mobile wallet users in 2019

PayPal leads mobile wallet rankings as users forecast to pass 2bn next year — Juniper Research — “Nearly 2.1 billion consumers worldwide will use a mobile wallet to make a payment or send money in 2019, up by nearly 30% on the 1.6 billion recorded at the end of 2017… The report also argued that while QR code-based in-store payments had seen quite astonishing levels of adoption in China, successful use cases in Europe and North America were likely to be limited to ‘closed loop’ wallets such as those deployed by Starbucks and Walmart.”


40% more merchants to accept card payments by 2022

Payment card acceptance set to surge by 40% to 85m outlets worldwide by 2022 — RBR — “The number of card-accepting merchant outlets rose by an impressive 7m in 2016 to 61m. Double digit growth was recorded across Asia-Pacific, central and eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa. Despite recent strong growth, all three regions continue to be underserved in terms of card acceptance and are expected to remain the engines of global growth, driving the total number of outlets worldwide to 85m by 2022.”


eMarketer: Mobile payments adoption held back by ‘strong contactless card usage’ in Europe

Global proximity mobile payment users: eMarketer’s estimates for 2016–2021 — eMarketer — “In 2018, for the first time, more than one-third (34.9%) of smartphone users ages 14 and older will use a mobile phone to pay for a purchase at a physical point of sale (POS) at least once every six months… Adoption in parts of Western Europe has been held back by strong contactless card usage. Consumers appear less likely to tap and pay with their mobile phones when their credit and debit cards already offer a similar level of convenience.”


Face recognition to be supported by more than a billion smartphones in 2020

More than one billion smartphones to feature facial recognition in 2020 — Counterpoint Research — “The diffusion of facial recognition technology into lower tier price bands will be faster than any other flagship feature due to 2D facial recognition being native on the Android platform… In future, Counterpoint Research expects mobile devices will combine biometric sensors for the face, iris, voice and fingerprints. Rather than competing against each other, each biometric technology will be layered on top of each other with the most convenient and least intrusive being selected on an application by application basis.”


One in five Brits to make mobile payments in stores this year

UK: Mobile payments still looking to grab a foothold — eMarketer — “Just over 22% of UK smartphone users will use a phone to pay for goods and services at the point of sale (POS) in 2018… China has the largest mobile proximity payments market in the world, with 77.5% of smartphone users doing so this year. Within Europe, the UK’s smartphone penetration rate will rank behind Norway (23.3%), Sweden (33.8%) and Denmark (38.9%) in 2018.”



Consumers to make 500bn card payments in 2022

Global card payments set to rise by more than half to 500bn by 2022 — RBR — “We have observed impressive growth in card usage across the globe. In developing markets, rising levels of card acceptance and consumers’ growing familiarity with using cards rather than cash as a payment tool, have contributed to high growth. Meanwhile, consumer usage of contactless technology for ever smaller amounts is bolstering growth in more mature markets.”


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