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Juniper scales back NFC forecast

Global NFC retail transaction values will now reach US$110bn in 2017, significantly below the $180bn previously forecast, the analysts say, due to the lack of NFC in the iPhone 5, lower than expected adoption of Google Wallet and the delay in the launch of Isis.

Dr Windsor Holden

HOLDEN: “Apple’s decision is a significant blow for the technology”

Market analyst Juniper Research has revised its forecasts for the global NFC market, significantly scaling back its growth estimates for North America and Western Europe.

In its NFC Mobile Payments Market Update report, published today, the company suggests that its previous forecasts for NFC transaction values will be subject to a two year lag. Global NFC retail transaction values are now expected to reach US$110bn in 2017, significantly below the $180bn previously forecast.

This, Juniper says, is due mostly to Apple not including NFC in the iPhone 5, which has reduced retailer and brand confidence in the technology and led to reduced point of sale terminal rollouts. This in turn, the company suggests, will lead to lower NFC visibility amongst consumers and fewer opportunities to make payments, threatening a cycle of “NFC indifference” in the short term.

“While many vendors have introduced NFC-enabled smartphones, Apple’s decision is a significant blow for the technology, particularly given its previous successes in educating the wider public about new mobile services” said report author Dr Windsor Holden. “Without their support, it will be even more difficult to persuade consumers — and retailers — to embrace what amounts to a wholly new means of payment.”

Juniper also cites adoption of Google Wallet being lower than it expected and the delayed launch of the US mobile operators’ Isis payments project as having had an effect on its forecasts.

Retail transactions in Japan and Korea, however, are likely to experience little or no impact from Apple’s decision, says Juniper.

ABI Research last month raised its forecast for NFC handset shipments over the next five years.

  • ENRFSEA

    Prediction: The Juniper 2017 forecast will be reduced even further in future. NFC payment can only “take off” only AFTER contactless payment is considered “normal”: i.e. when ~50% of the merchants have a contactless payment POS kit and ~50% of customers have contactless payment cards and contactless transactions make up at least 20% of all card transcactions: implies approx a 2018 start date for serious levels of NFC payments

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